What Now? Reflecting on 2020

What Now? Reflecting on 2020

There are a few weeks left of 2020. They might take a few days, or perhaps another few months, to pass—time didn’t move quite logically this year. It seems like a lot of people just want to fast forward through to get to 2021, a year still full with the hope that the vaccine will bring everything back to normal. I’d like to make a counterproposal: what if instead of wishing away what was for most people a bizarre year, we stop for a moment and look back at it? And what if instead of wishing for a return to the normal, we embrace the good that comes of change?

2020 was the year of COVID, of race protests, of isolation, one of the most dramatic U.S. elections in living memory. It was the year of the unprecedented. The borders closed between European countries for the first time since the establishment of the European Union. The border between the U.S. and Europe closed for the first time ever—and seems to be staying that way. Everything we accepted as normal, the good and the bad, tore away to reveal a messy, imperfect world. It’s a dark planet, but even from space it glitters with the lights of all our cities, grids connecting billions of people’s lives and stories. Perhaps in this year’s darkness the lights shone even brighter, because there was so much good in 2020, too.

Image from Space.com

This year, global conflict became unavoidably personal for everyone. This article phrases it perfectly, “In some ways, the pandemic has been a dress rehearsal for the climate crisis. Human beings throughout the world have been called upon to embrace science, change their lifestyles and make sacrifices for the common good.” This year was about awareness—maybe that’s why Americans’ concern about the climate crisis rose from 44% to an all-time high of 60% this year. Perhaps they realized that it’s no coincidence emissions dropped 9% at the same time that travel and consumption slowed—the biggest yearly drop on record. Though emissions are expected to increase again next year, they still won’t be higher than any year since 1990. Yet another reason this year’s timeline feels off: in some ways we’ve been time traveling. In San Francisco, traffic levels across the Golden Gate Bridge fell to levels similar to the 1950s, resulting in coyotes wandering across. The drop in noise from our usually bustling cities caused a change in bird song: “While it might have seemed to human ears that bird song got louder, the sparrows actually sang more quietly,” explains Dr. Elizabeth Derryberry of the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

We also moved forward in time, making huge and exciting progress toward the future of global energy, renewables. During shutdowns, with reduced demand for power, grid operators relied more on cheaper renewable energy sources, and almost 10% of electricity generation in most parts of the world were sourced from renewable energy sources. Denmark, already a leader in wind energy, just announced that it will stop providing licenses for oil exploration in the North Sea, preventing the extraction of about 150 million barrels of oil by 2050. The plan, which Climate and Energy Minister Dan Jorgensen announced as a historic step toward a fossil-free future that will “resonate around the world,” was created as an economic response to the pandemic.

So with the present as an exciting conglomeration of the future and past, all de-familiarized by the fact that we’re still living through it, I ask…now what? What does the future need to look like, across government, business, and society, to create a clean and just world? In the United States, leaders would do well to learn from Nordic countries, China and India, and Sub-Saharan Africa. President-elect Biden’s outline of some of his climate goals, including rejoining the Paris Agreement, is cause for hope, but the support of the judiciary, in addition to the executive and lawmakers, is necessary. Globally, a total of 1,587 cases of climate litigation have been brought between 1986 and mid-2020: 1,213 cases in the U.S. and 374 cases in 36 other countries and eight regional or international jurisdictions. These numbers are increasing rapidly, and according to this LSE study, “These cases play an important supporting role in ensuring the national implementation of international emissions-reduction commitments, the alignment of national laws with the Paris Agreement, and the enforcement of laws and policies relating to climate resilience.” This year, in the U.S., a federal judge ruled that the highly controversial Dakota Access Pipeline be shut down because federal officials failed to adequately analyze the project’s environmental impact. Also this year, in Portugal, six young people filed a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, demanding accountability from 33 top-emitting countries for the climate crisis and that funds for economic restoration from the pandemic are spent in a way that ensures a rapid transition to renewable energy. While individual executive leadership is important, the role of other branches of government, and of international organizations, cannot be dismissed.

Image from LSE

Change on a government level is infamously slow—passing progressive plans through multiple levels of bureaucracy and special interests can hardly be the only way to enact change, though it’s undoubtedly an important one. Businesses also have a role to play in ensuring a rapid transition to sustainability. From simplifying global supply chains to replacing physical structures with digital platforms, businesses occupy a unique position that enables not just rapid reaction to shifting norms but also the ability to spearhead change. One hundred companies are responsible for 71% of greenhouse gas emissions, and massive corporations must be accountable for their impact on the planet. In this area, there is good news. Walmart has cut 230 million metric tons of greenhouse gases out of its supply chain in the past three years, Uniliver vowed to replace the petrochemicals found in its detergents and household cleaners with renewable or recycled alternatives, Apple committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030, and Lyft said 100% of its trips will be in electric vehicles within the decade. In the realm of startups and investors, a changing mindset is even more evident. Green startups are more common than ever, reimagining everything from how nitrogen fertilizer is created for global agriculture to how to simultaneously reduce food waste and hunger.

More than simply building back better, we need to build back equal, creating social change that reduces inequality as we focus on green growth. What a just transition entails varies by country, depending on the place’s particular culture, norms, and historical legacies, so there is no one solution to be prescribed in order to ensure equality and effective reform everywhere. But there is one commonality, one overarching goal we must keep in mind as the world pulls itself out of this chaotic year, and this unsustainable epoch of human history: what comes next is entirely up to us. The actions that governments, businesses, and individuals take now will affect everyone for generations to come. There is only one global climate future—the one whose foundations are being built by the decisions we make today.

Featured image from La Croix

Rebuilding Sustainably

Rebuilding Sustainably

When the world went into lockdown earlier this year, and the streets and skies were emptied of their usual polluting noisiness, people enthusiastically counted a decrease in environmental degradation as the one positive outcome of the pandemic. For anyone still doubting it, the drop in emissions proved that humans are responsible for climate change, but also that nature is resilient and flourishes again the moment human interference is diminished. We can learn from the societal changes we saw during the pandemic in order to develop policies that will stimulate the rebuilding of the economy with sustainability in mind, so long as the temptation of short-term fixes doesn’t distract and further entrench harmful and outdated practices.

Image from The Guardian

“Epidemiologists have long warned that the characteristics of today’s global society (e.g. shifts in and destruction of wild habitats, greater global interconnectedness, high-density in large urban centres) increase the risk of future pandemics, even if no one could predict when one would happen,” reports an OECD article on the coronavirus and policy responses. Clearly, the causes of the pandemic and climate change have significant overlap, but that certainly doesn’t mean that the pandemic on its own will make a huge impact in solving the environmental crisis. Early on in the pandemic, the IEA predicted that there would be a 6% drop in energy demand in 2020, “wiping off five years of demand growth.” Another source traced monthly decreases of CO2 emissions by sector, emphasizing how surface transport accounted for half of the 17% drop at the time of the study. Both sources, however, agree that temporary, lockdown-induced improvements are not enough, a mere drop in the ocean of the improvements that need to happen for the effects of climate change to be reversed. Also, this is not even the first crisis to have a temporary positive impact—the 2008 Global Financial Crisis also caused a short drop in emissions, which was then followed by an even greater growth in subsequent years. It’s not the lockdown that has the biggest effect, but the policies that we decide to implement following the lockdowns.

Image from The BBC

These policies should correspond to the changes we saw that were effective in decreasing environmental degradation during the lockdown. Before the pandemic, companies like Deloitte, which flew its consultants out to locations around the country on a weekly basis, were the top customers of airlines like Delta and United. After having switched to remote work during the pandemic, such companies have realized how much more effective and profitable decreasing business travel can be. Even now, office buildings in Manhattan stand mostly empty, meaning that the energy required to operate these buildings, to transport workers to and from their offices, and to fly for business trips are all being saved. With an increased emphasis on remote work, it’s possible that companies will lean toward shortening global supply chains and growing online, which would also decrease emissions from shipping—one of the top causes of pollution globally.

Image from BDC Network

As of right now, the positive impact on the environment is incremental when compared to the massive economic problems the lockdowns have resulted in. As a result, it might be hard to see why prioritizing the environment would be important as policymakers and businesses struggle to rebuild. There are a few key actions that might be helpful to the economy in the short term that would create long term damage to the environmental progress we’ve made, like dismantling carbon markets, lowering vehicle fuel efficiency standards, or just generally weakening existing environmental policy enforcement in order to cut costs. Also, other potential issues include a drop in investment in renewable energy due to the recent drop in oil prices, and the longer period before returns characteristic of some renewables, in addition to a decrease in innovation from smaller firms that usually spearhead progress but who were harder hit during the pandemic.

The European Green Deal, first presented last December, is being incorporated into the regrowth of the European economy following the first wave of the pandemic. Countries like Sweden are committing to financially supporting “green job” creation to reduce unemployment within a green stimulus package. Europe is serving as a model for how to transition from an unsustainable, pre-pandemic economy to one that suits the modern needs of recovering from the economic blows of the pandemic while addressing the urgency of climate change. The goals of the European Green Deal include:

-No net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050
-Economic growth is decoupled from resource use
-No person and no place is left behind

They specify that these goals will be reached by:
-Investing in environmentally-friendly technologies
-Supporting industry to innovate
-Rolling out cleaner, cheaper and healthier forms of private and public transport
-Decarbonising the energy sector
-Ensuring buildings are more energy efficient
-Working with international partners to improve global environmental standards

In the United States, meanwhile, talk of the Green New Deal largely fizzled out after it was defeated in the Senate in 2019. Progressive climate policy cannot continue to be regarded in the U.S. as idealistic, something to perhaps be pursued in some distant future when the need will be greater. The pandemic revealed the extent of our impact on the climate, and our own globalized world forced us to slow down and rapidly dismantle much of what we built, and what we had planned for. The only way forward that addresses the joint cause of the pandemic and of climate change is a focus on sustainability and climate justice as we rebuild our shared world.

Featured Image by The Economic Times

Written by Francesca von Krauland, Columbia University Masters Student in Global Thought and Climate Justice Now Intern.